Tennis / Point stages

Tennis point stages

When do tennis players win and lose their points?

Reading these charts

Illustrative example, not a player result: with 100 included points, 10 wins and 5 losses ending at Serve would occupy 10% and 5% of the ending chart. Both use all 100 points. A win rate after a stage uses only the points that reached it; reaching several stages counts the same shared point more than once.

Loading recorded points…

How the model works

Profiles describe included chart-observed points, not all points played. Missing or unsupported later-rally notation accounts for much of the omission and may affect phase proportions. Points from excluded match records and points omitted after notation checks are retained in coverage; they are not assigned success, failure or known absence.

Method

Serve +1 is the server’s first attempt to hit the ball after the return, including errors. Serve +1 is part of rally play and is shown separately here. Its points are not added to the totals a second time. Returns and serves retain their own action categories.

Unequal exposure and selective retention prevent fair player comparisons, rankings, causal-skill, transferable-skill or independent-factor conclusions. There are no established confidence intervals. Internal chart consistency does not establish official match completion or complete tournament coverage. Historical men’s/women’s labels do not certify governing-tour membership. Names are exact source identities, without alias merging. All years of data obtained for this project have already been examined, so none is an untouched test of a redesigned forecasting method. Recorded dates do not show when the information became available.

The dataset contains 450 player identities. The men’s-category Dominik Koepfer profile is excluded from selection. The charts show the selected player’s aggregates.

The charts use point-phase and break-point/ending-type data. Dataset identifiers, source references and file fingerprints are in the source record. The analysis repository is public.

The viewer reuses the website’s self-hosted Fraunces, Source Serif 4 and IBM Plex Mono fonts. Full copyright and license notices are linked below.

Formulas

Break-point context is reconciled pre-point ordinary-game score: every opportunity counts, tiebreaks never count, and unknown/conflicting states stay outside the subset. This annotation never rescues withheld points. The subset selector changes the denominator to included break points; serving/receiving counts distinguish facing a break from having a break opportunity. Point endings partition the selected included subset. Win share = recorded wins at that ending / the selected included subset involving the selected player; loss share uses recorded losses over that same denominator. The phase names the final recorded action by either player, not its causal contribution. First-serve faults and lets do not automatically end points.

Stage reach = points known to reach the stage / selected included subset points. Stages overlap and describe a shared point, not both players executing the stroke. Role-specific point win rate = selected-player wins among points reaching the stage / the documented role-specific reached-point denominator. Unknown reaches stay outside that denominator; an unknown winner among reached points makes the rate unavailable. Unknown is not absence or a loss; zero-denominator rates remain unavailable.

Ending types reflect recorded notation and the linked terminal actor, not causal credit. Aces and double faults are separate; collapsed unreturnable notation is Other supported ending, without inferred forced-error attribution. Administrative endings are nonphysical. Type percentages use the displayed phase denominator; absent observations are not errors.

Validation and research

These are sampled charted matches, with unequal opponent exposure. Included percentages do not measure a player’s career or complete tournament coverage.

Limitations

Missing point details may change the apparent pattern of endings. Missing details occur especially later in rallies.
These are sampled charted matches, with unequal opponent exposure. Included percentages do not measure a player’s career or complete tournament coverage.
Consistent match records do not prove the match officially finished. The men’s/women’s labels do not confirm which tennis tour each match belongs to.
Recorded endings do not establish what caused a point result, player rankings, strengths or clutch ability. Break points describe a selected subset.
Uncertainty intervals have not been established. The data years have already been examined; recorded dates do not show when the information became available.

Definitions

Included points

Recorded points with enough clear information about the full point to use in these charts.

Break points

Points in a regular game where the receiver would win the game by winning this point, whether the chance is taken or saved. Tiebreak points do not count.

Serve

A serve attempt, including faults, lets, aces and double faults. A fault or let need not end the point.

Return

The receiver’s attempt to hit the serve back, including errors.

Serve +1

The server’s first attempt to hit the ball after the return, including errors.

Later Rally

Play after the server’s first attempted shot following the return.

Stage reached

The point got as far as a shot attempt at this stage; one point can reach several stages.

Win rate after reaching a stage

The player’s wins out of the points known to reach this stage, shown separately when serving and receiving.

Ending types

Descriptions in the match record of the final shot, error or point award.

Recorded points

All points in the match records for this player and view, including omitted points and points from excluded match records.

Included percentage

The included points as a percentage of all recorded points for this player and view, not their whole career.

Points omitted because details are unclear

Recorded points left out of the charts because their details are unclear or conflicting.

Points from excluded match records

Recorded points left out because the match may have ended early or its ending cannot be confirmed from the record.

All recorded matches

The player’s points pooled across the matches recorded here, rather than their whole career.

Dates in the match records

The dates listed for these matches, without proof of when their details became available.

Men’s and women’s categories

The categories used in the match records, without confirming which tennis tour each match belongs to.

Points counted for a percentage

The total number of points a percentage is measured out of.

Ending win and loss percentages

The selected player’s wins or losses ending at a stage, out of all included points in the chosen selection.

Ending-type percentages

Points with a given recorded ending, out of the included points ending at that same stage in the chosen selection.

Break points faced

Included break points on the selected player’s serve, when the opponent could win the game by winning the point.

Break-point opportunities

Included break points when the selected player is receiving and could win the game by winning the point.

Did not reach this stage

The point is known to have ended before this stage.

Stage reach unclear

The record does not clearly show whether the point reached this stage.

Zero

No events of that kind were recorded among the points counted.

Unavailable

No percentage can be shown because no points qualify for it or the needed information is unclear.

Ace

A serve recorded as winning the point without the receiver touching the ball.

Double fault

A second-serve fault that loses the point.

Other recorded winner

A shot other than an ace that the match record marks as a winner.

Forced error

An error the match record describes as a forced response to the opponent’s shot.

Unforced error

An error the match record describes as a miss not forced by the opponent’s shot.

No recorded final shot

An ending with no final shot named in the record, such as a point penalty or failed challenge.

Other recorded ending

An ending marked unreturnable, without a recorded forced- or unforced-error label.

Unknown ending type

The record does not clearly show how the point ended.

Player making the final action

The player who made the last recorded shot or error, who may differ from the player who won the point.

Selected player and opponent

The selected player is the player you chose above; the opponent is the other player in that match.

No final-shot player named

This ending gives a point result without naming a player’s final shot.

Final-action player unclear

The record does not clearly identify who made the final action.

Win % of points ending here

The selected player’s wins out of their wins plus losses on points that ended at this stage.

Sources and code

Sources and licenses

Source: The Tennis Abstract Match Charting Project, by Jeff Sackmann and contributors.

The source is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. The adapted display material includes parsed notation, conservative inclusion checks, neutral player perspectives, point-stage and recorded-ending classifications, and pooled display counts. Full source, changes and applicable license notice. The adapted tennis display material is also provided under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0; this does not relicense unrelated website material. No provider endorsement is implied.

Font copyright and full SIL Open Font License notices: Fraunces, Source Serif 4, IBM Plex Mono. These notices concern fonts; the MCP notice concerns adapted data.