Narayan Lekhi
2009–2022 drafts / The first four seasons

NBA Draft Success

What happens in the first four seasons?

Page sections

Earlier picks tend to deliver more wins. Draft position is less tied to impact per possession.

2009–2022 drafts · four seasons after selection. Estimated WAR: any NBA team. LEBRON rate: rated players only.

Reading the chart
Pick mean Fit 95% fit interval Players · tap

2009–2022 drafts · four seasons after selection. Estimated WAR: any NBA team. LEBRON rate: rated players only.

Pick overview

Pick 41 → a real player near the fitted outcome

Past four-season production, not a prediction or playing-style match.

Modeled pick outcome

Expected four-season WAR (wins above replacement)
1.86
Expected NBA minutes
1960

Observed at this pick: mean 3.81, median 0.47 four-season WAR. These differ from the fitted target.

Target uncertainty and selection

95% mean-target intervals: 1.59–2.15 four-season WAR; 1748–2142 minutes. These condition on the selected curve. They are not an individual outcome range or a probability of becoming this player; the selected name can change with the target.

The approved method keeps WAR close to the fitted target, then considers fitted workload inside its support rules. The library has 828 complete historical outcomes, including nonparticipants; 10 unresolved windows are excluded. Unsupported WAR abstains. Supported WAR with unsupported workload falls back to a WAR-only illustration.

Pure nearest-WAR reference: Kevin Porter Jr., 1.88 WAR and 5928 minutes. It is a different selection rule.

Saben Lee

Drafted 2020, pick 38 · cross-slot example
2020-21 through 2023-24

Actual four-season WAR
1.96 (+0.10 vs fitted)
Actual NBA minutes
1943 (-17 vs fitted)

WAR and workload within support

Inspect Saben Lee’s four seasons

134 games. Actual possession-weighted LEBRON: -0.82. This rate describes this person’s measured NBA minutes; the pick has no unconditional rate target.

Season participation · waiting years count
SeasonMinGames
2020–2178148
2021–2260437
2022–2337325
2023–2418524
Nearby alternatives and their gaps

Supplied order; all gaps are actual minus fitted target. Choosing an alternative changes the illustration only, not the pick or salary ceiling.

  • Saben Lee · 2020, pick 38 (cross-slot): 1.96 four-season WAR (+0.10); 1943 minutes (-17). WAR and workload within support.
  • Cheick Diallo · 2016, pick 33 (cross-slot): 1.78 four-season WAR (-0.08); 2155 minutes (+195). WAR and workload within support.
  • Jan Veselý · 2011, pick 6 (cross-slot): 1.80 four-season WAR (-0.06); 2455 minutes (+495). WAR and workload within support.

WAR: estimated wins above replacement over four seasons

Selected pick 41
Pick mean Fit 95% fit interval Players · tap
Pick 1: mean 17.60, n=14Pick 2: mean 7.70, n=14Pick 3: mean 14.41, n=14Pick 4: mean 8.22, n=14Pick 5: mean 7.58, n=14Pick 6: mean 8.16, n=14Pick 7: mean 7.54, n=14Pick 8: mean 6.98, n=14Pick 9: mean 7.15, n=14Pick 10: mean 8.01, n=14Pick 11: mean 6.76, n=14Pick 12: mean 6.86, n=14Pick 13: mean 5.57, n=13Pick 14: mean 4.44, n=13Pick 15: mean 6.70, n=14Pick 16: mean 4.35, n=14Pick 17: mean 4.93, n=14Pick 18: mean 3.61, n=14Pick 19: mean 5.17, n=13Pick 20: mean 3.83, n=12Pick 21: mean 4.98, n=14Pick 22: mean 5.37, n=14Pick 23: mean 3.14, n=14Pick 24: mean 1.92, n=13Pick 25: mean 3.16, n=14Pick 26: mean 3.43, n=14Pick 27: mean 6.35, n=13Pick 28: mean 1.70, n=14Pick 29: mean 3.13, n=14Pick 30: mean 5.09, n=14Pick 31: mean 1.28, n=14Pick 32: mean 1.60, n=14Pick 33: mean 1.89, n=14Pick 34: mean 2.93, n=13Pick 35: mean 4.15, n=14Pick 36: mean 2.90, n=14Pick 37: mean 1.38, n=14Pick 38: mean 3.53, n=14Pick 39: mean 3.29, n=14Pick 40: mean 2.05, n=13Pick 41: mean 3.81, n=14Pick 42: mean 1.04, n=14Pick 43: mean 1.68, n=14Pick 44: mean 1.52, n=13Pick 45: mean 1.28, n=14Pick 46: mean 2.36, n=14Pick 47: mean 0.64, n=14Pick 48: mean 0.93, n=14Pick 49: mean 0.85, n=14Pick 50: mean 0.67, n=14Pick 51: mean 0.69, n=14Pick 52: mean 1.03, n=14Pick 53: mean 0.28, n=14Pick 54: mean 0.56, n=14Pick 55: mean 1.05, n=14Pick 56: mean 0.11, n=14Pick 57: mean 0.18, n=14Pick 58: mean 0.53, n=14Pick 59: mean 0.05, n=13Pick 60: mean 1.77, n=13Jodie Meeks (2009): 7.89 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Jarvis Varnado (2010): 0.43 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Darius Morris (2011): 0.09 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Tyshawn Taylor (2012): -0.10 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Jamaal Franklin (2013): 0.07 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Nikola Jokić (2014): 26.09 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Pat Connaughton (2015): 2.78 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Stephen Zimmerman (2016): 0.11 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Tyler Dorsey (2017): 0.50 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Jarred Vanderbilt (2018): 5.93 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Eric Paschall (2019): 0.74 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Tre Jones (2020): 8.39 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.Joe Wieskamp (2021): 0.16 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.E.J. Liddell (2022): 0.30 Accumulated WAR. Tap to inspect.

Held-out 2020–2022 drafts: 4.60 WAR prediction error (RMSE), versus 5.55 for the no-pick baseline. Lower is better.

Same 735 rated players: pick–WAR rank correlation -0.45; pick–LEBRON -0.13.

Pick 41 · four seasons after selection

Median 0.47 four-season WAR; 14 of 14 rated in this window.

The 1.86 four-season WAR fit is a mean. The observed 10th–90th percentiles span 0.08 to 8.24 four-season WAR, not a future-player prediction interval.

Jokić supplied 49% of this slot’s total observed four-season WAR. Exceptional outcomes pull the mean above its 0.47 WAR median over four seasons.

Individual prediction error vs uncertainty in the mean

For picks 31–60, the held-out individual RMSE was 2.49 wins above replacement over four seasons (n=88, 2020–2022 test classes). This measures typical prediction error with extra weight on large misses; it is not a prediction interval.

The selected pick’s final fitted-mean 95% interval is 1.59 to 2.15 wins above replacement over four seasons. It describes uncertainty in the average, not the range of individual careers. The test model was trained on 2009–2019; the chart is the final all-class refit.

Detailed record and distribution · 14 actual outcomes

Jarvis Varnado, draft 2010: 0.43 WAR, -0.65 LEBRON, 397 NBA minutes. 2 NBA seasons in four elapsed seasons; debut in year 3.

Observed four-season mean (WAR)
3.81
Observed four-season median (WAR)
0.47
Fitted four-season mean (WAR)
1.86
Complete selections
14

Middle 50%: 0.12 to 5.14. 10th–90th percentiles: 0.08 to 8.24. Mean intervals: observed 0.88 to 7.85, fitted mean 1.59 to 2.15. Small samples and mean intervals do not describe a future player's prediction range.

Evidence for the overall finding

Same-population check: among the same 735 complete rated participants, pick–WAR rank correlation is -0.45, compared with -0.13 for pick–LEBRON. All 828 complete WAR outcomes give -0.52. On the same 735 players, the signed correlation difference (WAR minus LEBRON) is -0.325, with a paired class-bootstrap 95% interval -0.36 to -0.29. This is a retrospective association contrast, not a causal effect.

Player-level rank correlation: -0.52 (95% interval -0.56 to -0.47; n=828). Selected model: Line on log pick.

Validation and model details
Held-out prediction errors by pick band — Accumulated WAR

Selected model fitted only on 2009-2019; evaluate all 2020-2022 draft classes together by pick band. These test classes were excluded from model selection and fitting. Prediction minus observed outcome; positive means overprediction, negative means underprediction. The chart above instead uses the final refit on all complete classes.

Wins above replacement over four seasons; test classes 2020–2022 only. Swipe or use arrow keys to see every column.
PicksnObserved meanPredicted meanSigned errorRMSE
1–51511.5111.39-0.127.58
6–14276.656.870.227.02
15–30484.244.02-0.224.65
31–60881.431.600.172.49

Three test classes give small subgroup samples; these are not precise estimates of lasting tier bias.

Error by held-out draft class — Accumulated WAR

One selected model trained on 2009–2019; each displayed class is excluded from fitting. Positive signed error means overprediction.

Wins above replacement over four seasons; retrospective held-out classes.
DraftnObserved meanPredicted meanSigned errorRMSE
2020603.773.840.074.49
2021603.953.84-0.114.90
2022583.773.950.184.40

The 2019 class's four-season outcome matures after 2022-23. These are retrospective held-out-class diagnostics, not forecasts available before the 2020 draft.

Model comparison — Accumulated WAR

Root mean squared error (RMSE): square each prediction error, average those squares, then take the square root. It uses the outcome units and gives larger errors more weight. Lower is better. measures prediction error in the outcome units; lower is better. The best CV error is 5.301. Adding its class-error standard error gives a cutoff of 5.621. The simplest candidate within that cutoff is retained.

Leave-one-draft-class-out CV on 2009-2019; simplest model within one SE of the lowest mean fold RMSE. 2020-2022 reserved for final testing. Final displayed curve refit on all eligible complete classes.

Error uses wins above replacement over four seasons. Lower error is better. Test set: 2020–2022, n=178.

Candidate models; selection uses development classes only.
ModelClass CV RMSETest RMSE
Training mean6.135.55
Line on log pick (selected)5.304.60
Straight line5.454.80
Quadratic5.384.66
Cubic5.364.65
Natural spline (3 df)5.374.66
Natural spline (4 df)5.364.64

Selected model test R²: 0.31. Final displayed fit R²: 0.26. Final-fit performance includes the test classes after evaluation.

Actual draftees at pick 41

Jarvis Varnado · 2010 draft, pick 41

0.43 four-season WAR · -0.65 LEBRON · 397 NBA minutes. NBA debut in year 3.

This entry shows four-year impact above and season participation/exposure below. The rows report minutes, games, minutes per game and rating availability. “Rated” is an availability flag; annual WAR and rating values are not displayed for this player. Only Jokić has a season-impact walkthrough here, using three published records.

Four regular seasons after selection, including any waiting years. MPG = minutes per game (minutes ÷ games played).
YearMinGamesRate status
2010–1100No NBA minutes
2011–1200No NBA minutes
2012–13584.5 MPG13Rated
2013–1433914.1 MPG24Rated
Pick-outcome percentiles and all selected-slot records

The default examples are actual draftees at the selected slot, nearest its observed 25th, 50th and 90th percentile WAR. Matching uses WAR only; minutes and LEBRON are shown as context, not extra matching dimensions. Ties choose the earlier draft class. A named example is not a forecast.

Pick 41: observed four-season examples

At this slot, the near-median example is Jarvis Varnado (0.43 four-season WAR); the upper-tail example is Tre Jones (8.39 four-season WAR). Jokić's 26.1 four-season WAR is the highest observed result, not the 90th-percentile target.

Stephen Zimmerman · 2016

Actual four-season WAR
0.111
Actual LEBRON
-0.767
NBA minutes
108

25th-percentile target 0.12 four-season WAR (actual-minus-target -0.01). Debut in year 1.

Jarvis Varnado · 2010

Actual four-season WAR
0.431
Actual LEBRON
-0.646
NBA minutes
397

50th-percentile target 0.47 four-season WAR (actual-minus-target -0.04). Debut in year 3 (delayed).

Tre Jones · 2020

Actual four-season WAR
8.392
Actual LEBRON
-0.040
NBA minutes
5539

90th-percentile target 8.24 four-season WAR (actual-minus-target 0.15). Debut in year 1.

All 14 actual selections at pick 41

Four seasons after selection. Missing positive-minute metrics remain unavailable. No NBA appearances produce zero WAR and no defined rate.

All selected-slot outcomes, including unresolved records.
PlayerDraftWARLEBRONMinutesDebut/statusFour actual years
Jodie Meeks20097.89-0.366088Year 1Year 1: 719 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 2062 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 3: 1644 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 4: 1663 min · 1,000+ · rated
Jarvis Varnado20100.43-0.65397Year 3 (delayed)Year 1: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 2: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 3: 58 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 4: 339 min · below 1,000 · rated
Darius Morris20110.09-2.201464Year 1Year 1: 169 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 683 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 313 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 4: 299 min · below 1,000 · rated
Tyshawn Taylor2012-0.10-2.58491Year 1Year 1: 221 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 270 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
Jamaal Franklin20130.07-1.65174Year 1Year 1: 161 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 13 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
Nikola Jokić201426.094.066214Year 2 (delayed)Year 1: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 2: 1733 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 3: 2038 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 4: 2443 min · 1,000+ · rated
Pat Connaughton20152.78-0.993208Year 1Year 1: 143 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 316 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 1488 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 4: 1261 min · 1,000+ · rated
Stephen Zimmerman20160.11-0.77108Year 1Year 1: 108 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
Tyler Dorsey20170.50-1.871672Year 1Year 1: 974 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 698 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
Jarred Vanderbilt20185.930.543134Year 1Year 1: 69 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 46 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 1139 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 4: 1880 min · 1,000+ · rated
Eric Paschall20190.74-2.013086Year 1Year 1: 1654 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 2: 695 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 737 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
Tre Jones20208.39-0.045539Year 1Year 1: 269 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 1148 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 3: 1984 min · 1,000+ · ratedYear 4: 2138 min · 1,000+ · rated
Joe Wieskamp20210.16-1.42255Year 1Year 1: 205 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 2: 50 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
E.J. Liddell20220.30-1.31425Year 2 (delayed)Year 1: 0 min · below 1,000 · unratedYear 2: 23 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 3: 53 min · below 1,000 · ratedYear 4: 349 min · below 1,000 · rated

Jodie Meeks · 2009

7.89 four-season WAR · -0.36 LEBRON · 6088 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 719 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 2062 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 3: 1644 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 4: 1663 min · 1,000+ · rated

Jarvis Varnado · 2010

0.43 four-season WAR · -0.65 LEBRON · 397 minutes. Debut year 3 (delayed).

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 2: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 3: 58 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 4: 339 min · below 1,000 · rated

Darius Morris · 2011

0.09 four-season WAR · -2.20 LEBRON · 1464 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 169 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 683 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 313 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 4: 299 min · below 1,000 · rated

Tyshawn Taylor · 2012

-0.10 four-season WAR · -2.58 LEBRON · 491 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 221 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 270 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated

Jamaal Franklin · 2013

0.07 four-season WAR · -1.65 LEBRON · 174 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 161 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 13 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated

Nikola Jokić · 2014

26.09 four-season WAR · 4.06 LEBRON · 6214 minutes. Debut year 2 (delayed).

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 2: 1733 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 3: 2038 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 4: 2443 min · 1,000+ · rated

Pat Connaughton · 2015

2.78 four-season WAR · -0.99 LEBRON · 3208 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 143 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 316 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 1488 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 4: 1261 min · 1,000+ · rated

Stephen Zimmerman · 2016

0.11 four-season WAR · -0.77 LEBRON · 108 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 108 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated

Tyler Dorsey · 2017

0.50 four-season WAR · -1.87 LEBRON · 1672 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 974 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 698 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated

Jarred Vanderbilt · 2018

5.93 four-season WAR · 0.54 LEBRON · 3134 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 69 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 46 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 1139 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 4: 1880 min · 1,000+ · rated

Eric Paschall · 2019

0.74 four-season WAR · -2.01 LEBRON · 3086 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 1654 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 2: 695 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 737 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated

Tre Jones · 2020

8.39 four-season WAR · -0.04 LEBRON · 5539 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 269 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 1148 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 3: 1984 min · 1,000+ · rated
  • Year 4: 2138 min · 1,000+ · rated

Joe Wieskamp · 2021

0.16 four-season WAR · -1.42 LEBRON · 255 minutes. Debut year 1.

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 205 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 2: 50 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 4: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated

E.J. Liddell · 2022

0.30 four-season WAR · -1.31 LEBRON · 425 minutes. Debut year 2 (delayed).

Four actual years
  • Year 1: 0 min · below 1,000 · unrated
  • Year 2: 23 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 3: 53 min · below 1,000 · rated
  • Year 4: 349 min · below 1,000 · rated

Annual WAR: four-year average vs single-season incumbents

Pick 41: 1.86 four-season WAR ÷ 4 ≈ 0.47 WAR per season

Selected-budget comparison. Incumbent cap ceiling: $11,000,000 in 2026–27. Compare with observed single-season WAR in 2025–26; salary eligibility is not an acquisition price.

The observed pick-41 median is 0.47 WAR across four seasons. The fitted annual target above is a different quantity, even though both round to 0.47.

No fixed pick-specific rookie scale is supplied for this second-round slot. Rookie cost and asset surplus remain unpriced.

  • Royce O'Neale

    0.48 observed WAR · $10,875,000 year-one cap hit

    Contract context

    2 counted seasons, $22,500,000 total counted cap hits. Charlotte Hornets at snapshot; source age 33. Contract source. 0.010 WAR versus target; differences use unrounded inputs.

  • Max Christie

    0.50 observed WAR · $8,285,714 year-one cap hit

    Contract context

    1 counted season, $8,285,714 total counted cap hits. Dallas Mavericks at snapshot; source age 23. Contract source. 0.031 WAR versus target; differences use unrounded inputs.

  • Svi Mykhailiuk

    0.52 observed WAR · $3,850,000 year-one cap hit

    Contract context

    1 counted season, $3,850,000 total counted cap hits. Utah Jazz at snapshot; source age 29. Contract source. 0.050 WAR versus target; differences use unrounded inputs.

Three nearby references from 134 eligible incumbents: 0.48–0.52 observed WAR. Tiny gaps do not establish a uniquely equivalent player.

Comparison assumptions and rookie cost

This divides fitted four-season pick WAR by four and compares that average with one observed incumbent season. It does not estimate trade cost or match roles. Counted contract terms are context; the production comparison remains annual.

Divide fitted four-season pick WAR by four, then match one observed 2025-26 WAR season among the verified signed pool under each 2026-27 cap-hit ceiling. Both sides have one-season units. Annualization is a historical average per season, not a rookie-year forecast; no future production is invented.

Snapshots date to October 23, 2026; scenario evaluated November 4. The ceiling applies only to incumbent year-one cap hits, not the pick or total contract cost. No future player production is projected. Growth, role, fit, future deals, control, discounting and trade feasibility are unpriced.

Compare at 120% of rookie scale

This optional panel uses a separate incumbent cap ceiling: 120% of the first-year base scale for picks 1–30. The selected salary ceiling and its comparison above remain unchanged. It retains the same annual WAR target and signed-player eligibility. It is not a first-year rookie forecast, a signed rookie salary, or a trade-feasibility calculation.

Pick 41: not applicable. No first-round rookie scale applies to this second-round slot; no ceiling or matches are supplied.

Playing time is part of the result

Selected pick 41 belongs to picks 31–60. In this band, 327/418 selections played NBA minutes; 121/418 had a 1,000-minute season; 56/418 debuted in years two–four. Highlighted rows follow the selected band, not an individual-player development forecast.

At least one 1,000-minute season is a substantial-playing-time proxy, not proof of rotation quality. For picks 31–60, 121/418 selections met it; 169/418 accumulated at least 1,000 minutes across all four seasons. The two thresholds answer different questions.

Independent NBA minutes; each numerator is out of all actual selections.
Picks1,000+ in one season1,000+ in four seasonsDelayed debut
1–568/7070/706/70
6–14116/126124/1263/126
15–30152/224180/22418/224
31–60121/418169/41856/418

No debut within the four-season window: 1–5: 0/70; 6–14: 0/126; 15–30: 2/224; 31–60: 91/418.

Delayed debut means no appearance in year one followed by an appearance in years two–four. A later debut still uses up the four-season clock. The career table below describes changing rated groups and attrition; it is not a paired-player development estimate.

The first four years

The same 838 selections from the 2009–2022 drafts appear in every year. Each average describes players with a LEBRON rating and positive recorded minutes in that season.

Mean LEBRON among rated players; rated players / all picks beneath each value.
PicksYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4
1–5−1.3564/70 rated players out of all picks−0.1266/70 rated players out of all picks+0.2169/70 rated players out of all picks+0.7269/70 rated players out of all picks
6–14−1.58123/126 rated players out of all picks−0.95124/126 rated players out of all picks−0.48123/126 rated players out of all picks−0.24117/126 rated players out of all picks
15–30−1.47204/224 rated players out of all picks−1.00213/224 rated players out of all picks−0.67192/224 rated players out of all picks−0.53185/224 rated players out of all picks
31–60−1.20271/418 rated players out of all picks−1.15256/418 rated players out of all picks−0.86212/418 rated players out of all picks−0.70169/418 rated players out of all picks

Year 1 is the regular season starting in the draft year: the 2020 draft maps to 2020–21. The rated players change across years. These averages include attrition and do not measure the improvement of a fixed group of players. Unrated players remain in the pick counts; their LEBRON is not assigned zero.

What changes among the same returning players?

This pairs players with ratings in both year one and year four. Retention means the share of year-one-rated players rated again in year four; it is not an NBA survival rate for all selections. The change describes returning measured players, not causal development of all draftees.

Same-player LEBRON change, year four minus year one; pointwise 95% class-bootstrap intervals.
PicksPaired / year-one ratedChange (LEBRON)95% interval
1–563/641.941.54 to 2.30
6–14114/1231.240.94 to 1.57
15–30171/2040.970.77 to 1.21
31–60143/2710.520.30 to 0.78
Returning-player means, attrition and annual opportunity
Paired measurements and nonreturning year-one-rated players.
PicksAll draftedPaired nPaired year 1Paired year 4No NBA year 4Played but unrated year 4
1–57063-1.390.5510
6–14126114-1.51-0.2790
15–30224171-1.45-0.48321
31–60418143-1.17-0.651280
Annual opportunity: all eligible selections, including nonparticipants.
PicksYear after draftPlayed / draftedRated / drafted1,000 minutes / draftedMean minutes (all)Mean minutes (participants)
1–5164/7064/7053/7016001750
1–5266/7066/7057/7017761883
1–5369/7069/7057/7017601786
1–5469/7069/7056/7017911817
6–141123/126123/12683/12613031335
6–142125/126124/12693/12615511563
6–143124/126123/12693/12615231548
6–144117/126117/12683/12614261536
15–301204/224204/22469/224693761
15–302214/224213/224104/2249991046
15–303195/224192/224107/2249931141
15–304186/224185/224104/22410091215
31–601271/418271/41838/418303467
31–602259/418256/41860/418388626
31–603212/418212/41873/418399786
31–604169/418169/41873/4184161028

The pointwise 95% intervals resample whole draft classes 2,000 times. They describe uncertainty in the measured returning group, not the range of future careers for every draftee.

How the model works

The 2019 draft class’s four-season window matures through 2022–23. Holding out the 2020–2022 classes is a retrospective evaluation, not a claim that these outcomes were available on 2020 draft night.

Method
Scope and all-pick audit data

What the difference means

For 2009–2022 selections, earlier slots tended to produce more four-season WAR. Draft position had a weaker relationship with LEBRON among rated NBA participants. That rate comparison excludes players without a measured rate.

For a team, this separates two questions: how much NBA value a slot produced, including players who never appeared, and how effective its measured NBA participants were while playing. Neither quantity is pure talent.

At pick 41, the four-year WAR mean is 3.81, while the four-season median is 0.47 WAR across 14 complete selections. The average and the typical middle outcome tell different stories.

Why the pick-41 average is not a typical outcome

Nikola Jokić, drafted 2014 at pick 41, produced 26.09 WAR and a 4.06 LEBRON rate in 6214 NBA minutes over the 2014-15 through 2017-18 window. He played in 3 of those four seasons; the waiting season still counts. Highest observed four-season WAR among the 14 pick-41 outcomes; an upside example, not a typical outcome or contract surplus. Includes a draft-to-debut waiting season.

How the models were chosen · The first four years · Limitations

Opportunity differs too: 70/70 top-five selections played NBA minutes in the window, compared with 327/418 second-round selections. Their mean four-season minutes were 6927 and 1505, respectively, including nonparticipants.

Opportunity and measurement by pick band

Same 2009–2022 selections; appearances and minutes use independent NBA totals. Positive-minute players with missing metrics can appear in the NBA count without entering the complete or rated samples.

Four-year opportunity among all actual selections; scroll sideways for all measures.
PicksPlayed / draftedRated / draftedComplete WARMean minutesMedian minutes
1–570/7070/707069276995
6–14126/126124/12612458045698
15–30222/224217/22421936943584
31–60327/418324/4184151505446

Compare BBall Index estimate of on-court impact per 100 possessions, with zero at league average; not pure talent. Window rates are weighted by provider on-court possessions, then players count equally in pick summaries. No minutes means undefined rate. while playing with Provider-supplied LEBRON wins above replacement. Sum over the four regular seasons immediately following selection, preserving negative values. Confirmed absent seasons contribute zero accumulated value. across the first four seasons after selection.

838 selections · 828 complete outcomes · 735 rated participants · 10 unresolved windows. Drafts 2009–2022; outcomes through 2025-26 regular season.

93 complete selections had no NBA appearances in the four-season window. They count as zero accumulated WAR, with no defined LEBRON rate.

All 60 picks — complete data table

On a narrow screen, swipe the table sideways or focus it and use the Left and Right arrow keys. Full distribution and uncertainty values are available in the final sources section.

Rate means use rated participants. WAR means use complete outcomes. The counts are separate denominators.

Pick summaries in native units
PickDraftedCompleteUnresolvedRatedMean LEBRONPooled mean LEBRONMean WARFitted WAR
114140140.93-0.9017.6014.70
21414014-0.51-0.907.7012.30
314140140.63-0.9014.4110.90
41414014-0.65-0.908.229.90
51414014-0.60-0.907.589.13
61414014-0.48-0.908.168.50
71414014-0.87-0.907.547.97
81414014-0.83-0.906.987.51
91414014-0.89-0.907.157.10
101414014-0.70-0.908.016.74
111414014-0.82-0.906.766.41
121414014-0.80-0.906.866.11
131413113-1.09-0.905.575.83
141413113-0.98-0.904.445.57
151414014-0.79-0.906.705.34
161414014-0.59-0.904.355.11
171414014-1.07-0.904.934.90
181414014-0.99-0.903.614.71
191413113-0.91-0.905.174.52
201412212-0.96-0.903.834.34
211414014-1.03-0.904.984.17
221414014-0.74-0.905.374.01
231414014-1.17-0.903.143.86
241413113-1.69-0.901.923.71
251414014-1.06-0.903.163.57
261414013-0.96-0.903.433.44
271413113-0.41-0.906.353.31
281414013-1.49-0.901.703.18
291414014-0.81-0.903.133.06
301414014-0.73-0.905.092.94
311414013-1.53-0.901.282.83
321414013-1.30-0.901.602.72
331414014-0.89-0.901.892.61
341413111-1.08-0.902.932.51
351414012-0.54-0.904.152.41
361414012-0.90-0.902.902.31
371414013-1.43-0.901.382.22
381414014-0.76-0.903.532.12
391414011-0.72-0.903.292.03
401413113-1.29-0.902.051.95
411414014-0.80-0.903.811.86
421414011-1.29-0.901.041.78
431414013-1.20-0.901.681.70
441413111-1.02-0.901.521.62
45141409-1.05-0.901.281.54
461414013-1.29-0.902.361.46
471414010-1.14-0.900.641.39
481414013-1.33-0.900.931.32
491414010-1.08-0.900.851.25
50141408-0.82-0.900.671.18
51141407-0.93-0.900.691.11
521414012-1.12-0.901.031.04
531414010-0.96-0.900.280.97
54141408-0.90-0.900.560.91
551414013-1.00-0.901.050.85
561414010-0.95-0.900.110.78
57141405-1.27-0.900.180.72
58141409-1.52-0.900.530.66
59131305-0.90-0.900.050.60
60131307-0.81-0.901.770.55

How the model works

Formulas

Elapsed seasons since the draft, not seasons since the NBA debut. Delayed entry uses up the window. Off-calendar 2020 draft maps to the 2020-21 season. Leave-one-draft-class-out CV on 2009-2019; simplest model within one SE of the lowest mean fold RMSE. 2020-2022 reserved for final testing. Final displayed curve refit on all eligible complete classes.

Final rate equation: LEBRON = -0.896958. Final WAR equation: WAR = 14.695272 + (-3.455910 × ln(pick)). The logarithm lets the fitted decline differ between early and later slots.

These equations describe the selected fits in this retrospective sample; they do not forecast an individual player or establish a causal effect of draft position.

Pointwise percentile 95% whole-draft-class bootstrap intervals for historical means. Pointwise percentile 95% whole-class bootstrap intervals; selected model held fixed; uncertainty about mean, not individual prediction intervals. Percentile 95% whole-class bootstrap intervals; player-level observations.

Validation and research

Where does a pick depart from the fitted trend?

Raw pick averages can rise at later slots. The scan below compares observed mean WAR with the fitted WAR trend across all 60 slots; it does not establish a causal or lasting advantage. Simultaneous bands account for scanning the slots together and remain conditional on the selected model.

In this scan, pick 56's mean WAR is 0.11 versus fitted 0.78: a residual of -0.68. Removing the highest-WAR player at every slot and refitting shrinks that residual to -0.14. The main scan's simultaneous 95% band -1.26 to -0.09 does not establish a lasting effect. The negative sign is conditional on this expected curve: another eligible curve can change the sign. This is a model-choice-dependent residual, not a lasting slot effect, a forecast or a reason to prefer a nearby slot.

Pick 56: period and exceptional-player checks

Against the same main fitted curve, the observed-minus-fitted WAR residual in 2009–2015 is -0.66; in 2016–2022: -0.69. After removing the highest-WAR player at every slot and refitting, the residual is -0.14. These checks are negative relative to the specified main curve or its refit. They do not establish a curve-independent direction: the sign depends on the expected curve chosen.

Matched adjacent-slot differences

Later-numbered slot minus earlier-numbered slot, within the SAME draft classes; primary windows complete for both, and both rates observed for the rate contrast. Positive differences favor the later-numbered slot on the measured outcome. Each row uses only draft classes observed at both slots. Intervals are pointwise and exploratory, without a simultaneous correction for scanning all pairs.

Four-season WAR: later slot minus earlier slot within the same classes.
Earlier → laterMatched classesMissing pairsMean difference95% interval
1 → 2140-9.90-16.89 to -2.69
2 → 31406.710.49 to 13.43
3 → 4140-6.19-12.15 to -0.86
4 → 5140-0.64-6.05 to 4.73
5 → 61400.57-5.33 to 6.93
6 → 7140-0.62-6.18 to 5.51
7 → 8140-0.56-6.39 to 5.39
8 → 91400.17-5.66 to 6.06
9 → 101400.86-6.12 to 7.59
10 → 11140-1.24-7.63 to 4.80
11 → 121400.10-4.71 to 4.74
12 → 13131-1.82-6.35 to 2.81
13 → 14122-0.95-4.69 to 2.25
14 → 151310.81-4.20 to 6.47
15 → 16140-2.35-7.73 to 2.57
16 → 171400.58-2.66 to 3.97
17 → 18140-1.31-4.55 to 1.64
18 → 191311.44-1.54 to 4.78
19 → 20113-0.74-4.67 to 2.72
20 → 211221.39-2.35 to 4.91
21 → 221400.39-3.90 to 4.98
22 → 23140-2.23-5.66 to 1.12
23 → 24131-1.21-3.21 to 0.90
24 → 251311.44-2.45 to 5.26
25 → 261400.27-2.57 to 3.06
26 → 271313.710.11 to 8.00
27 → 28131-4.57-9.96 to -0.23
28 → 291401.43-0.81 to 3.37
29 → 301401.96-1.05 to 5.34
30 → 31140-3.82-7.84 to -0.24
31 → 321400.32-2.14 to 2.74
32 → 331400.29-1.92 to 2.24
33 → 341311.15-0.77 to 3.82
34 → 351311.53-2.08 to 5.41
35 → 36140-1.25-6.90 to 3.36
36 → 37140-1.52-4.11 to 0.97
37 → 381402.16-1.16 to 5.79
38 → 39140-0.25-4.61 to 3.84
39 → 40131-1.50-4.54 to 1.61
40 → 411312.05-2.05 to 6.93
41 → 42140-2.77-7.01 to 0.13
42 → 431400.64-1.24 to 2.38
43 → 44131-0.25-1.43 to 0.99
44 → 45131-0.26-2.03 to 1.61
45 → 461401.08-0.71 to 3.18
46 → 47140-1.72-3.52 to -0.16
47 → 481400.29-0.67 to 1.41
48 → 49140-0.08-1.53 to 1.21
49 → 50140-0.17-1.21 to 0.84
50 → 511400.02-1.05 to 1.34
51 → 521400.34-1.06 to 1.49
52 → 53140-0.75-1.58 to 0.00
53 → 541400.28-0.10 to 0.86
54 → 551400.49-0.33 to 1.29
55 → 56140-0.94-1.92 to -0.17
56 → 571400.07-0.14 to 0.37
57 → 581400.36-0.32 to 1.28
58 → 59131-0.52-1.47 to 0.08
59 → 601311.720.07 to 4.85
Four-season LEBRON rate among measured participants: later slot minus earlier slot within the same classes.
Earlier → laterMatched classesMissing pairsMean difference95% interval
1 → 2140-1.44-2.44 to -0.36
2 → 31401.14-0.16 to 2.43
3 → 4140-1.28-2.26 to -0.24
4 → 51400.05-1.01 to 1.04
5 → 61400.12-1.03 to 1.12
6 → 7140-0.39-1.34 to 0.70
7 → 81400.04-1.01 to 1.11
8 → 9140-0.06-1.09 to 0.96
9 → 101400.19-1.00 to 1.40
10 → 11140-0.12-1.03 to 0.82
11 → 121400.02-0.86 to 0.92
12 → 13131-0.40-1.13 to 0.35
13 → 141220.14-0.80 to 0.99
14 → 15131-0.10-1.16 to 1.02
15 → 161400.19-0.85 to 1.28
16 → 17140-0.47-1.18 to 0.28
17 → 181400.08-0.95 to 1.01
18 → 191310.07-0.58 to 0.78
19 → 201130.07-0.74 to 0.80
20 → 211220.00-0.99 to 0.91
21 → 221400.29-0.67 to 1.34
22 → 23140-0.43-1.20 to 0.30
23 → 24131-0.52-1.04 to -0.06
24 → 251310.64-0.54 to 1.70
25 → 261310.04-0.80 to 0.89
26 → 271220.60-0.26 to 1.56
27 → 28122-0.74-1.72 to 0.10
28 → 291310.810.31 to 1.33
29 → 301400.08-0.64 to 0.86
30 → 31131-0.84-1.90 to 0.22
31 → 321220.14-0.95 to 1.21
32 → 331310.42-0.29 to 1.13
33 → 34113-0.18-1.02 to 0.58
34 → 35950.41-0.82 to 1.53
35 → 36113-0.62-1.79 to 0.55
36 → 37113-0.78-1.69 to 0.22
37 → 381310.51-0.19 to 1.25
38 → 39113-0.27-1.35 to 0.85
39 → 40104-0.73-1.54 to 0.14
40 → 411310.59-0.29 to 1.69
41 → 42113-0.62-2.25 to 0.65
42 → 431040.35-0.69 to 1.26
43 → 441130.13-0.76 to 0.94
44 → 45680.21-0.83 to 1.32
45 → 4686-0.50-1.85 to 0.85
46 → 47950.38-0.44 to 1.15
47 → 48104-0.19-0.64 to 0.24
48 → 491040.35-0.52 to 1.19
49 → 50680.11-0.57 to 0.80
50 → 51311-0.41Only three pairs; no stable interval.
  • 2016: 0.53 later-minus-earlier
  • 2019: -0.37 later-minus-earlier
  • 2021: -1.41 later-minus-earlier
51 → 5268-0.42-1.43 to 0.47
52 → 531040.30-0.58 to 1.09
53 → 5477-0.25-0.59 to 0.13
54 → 55860.23-0.33 to 0.83
55 → 56950.06-0.47 to 0.63
56 → 57410-0.37-0.64 to 0.20
57 → 58410-0.16-1.95 to 1.50
58 → 594100.19-2.20 to 1.52
59 → 60311-0.11Only three pairs; no stable interval.
  • 2018: 0.04 later-minus-earlier
  • 2020: 0.97 later-minus-earlier
  • 2021: -1.35 later-minus-earlier
Explore all pick deviations
Observed mean minus fitted four-season WAR; simultaneous 95% bands.
PickDifferenceBandExploratory signal
12.91-5.41 to 11.23Band includes zero
2-4.60-10.58 to 1.38Band includes zero
33.51-5.00 to 12.02Band includes zero
4-1.68-7.30 to 3.93Band includes zero
5-1.55-7.15 to 4.05Band includes zero
6-0.35-7.42 to 6.73Band includes zero
7-0.43-6.39 to 5.53Band includes zero
8-0.53-7.22 to 6.16Band includes zero
90.05-6.72 to 6.81Band includes zero
101.27-6.76 to 9.30Band includes zero
110.36-6.11 to 6.83Band includes zero
120.75-5.12 to 6.62Band includes zero
13-0.26-6.53 to 6.01Band includes zero
14-1.14-5.83 to 3.56Band includes zero
151.37-6.61 to 9.34Band includes zero
16-0.76-5.24 to 3.71Band includes zero
170.02-4.34 to 4.39Band includes zero
18-1.10-5.13 to 2.94Band includes zero
190.65-3.67 to 4.97Band includes zero
20-0.51-3.59 to 2.57Band includes zero
210.81-3.67 to 5.29Band includes zero
221.36-4.45 to 7.16Band includes zero
23-0.72-3.26 to 1.82Band includes zero
24-1.79-5.33 to 1.75Band includes zero
25-0.41-4.92 to 4.11Band includes zero
260.00-3.24 to 3.24Band includes zero
273.04-4.17 to 10.25Band includes zero
28-1.48-4.15 to 1.19Band includes zero
290.07-3.06 to 3.20Band includes zero
302.15-2.79 to 7.09Band includes zero
31-1.55-4.61 to 1.50Band includes zero
32-1.12-3.91 to 1.67Band includes zero
33-0.73-3.06 to 1.60Band includes zero
340.42-4.15 to 4.99Band includes zero
351.74-5.68 to 9.16Band includes zero
360.59-3.54 to 4.72Band includes zero
37-0.84-3.08 to 1.40Band includes zero
381.41-3.28 to 6.10Band includes zero
391.25-3.10 to 5.61Band includes zero
400.10-3.65 to 3.85Band includes zero
411.95-4.10 to 8.00Band includes zero
42-0.73-2.68 to 1.21Band includes zero
43-0.01-2.40 to 2.37Band includes zero
44-0.09-2.09 to 1.90Band includes zero
45-0.26-2.16 to 1.64Band includes zero
460.90-1.84 to 3.64Band includes zero
47-0.75-1.78 to 0.29Band includes zero
48-0.39-2.09 to 1.32Band includes zero
49-0.40-1.89 to 1.10Band includes zero
50-0.50-1.26 to 0.25Band includes zero
51-0.42-2.14 to 1.30Band includes zero
52-0.01-1.38 to 1.36Band includes zero
53-0.70-1.47 to 0.07Band includes zero
54-0.35-1.53 to 0.82Band includes zero
550.20-1.58 to 1.98Band includes zero
56-0.68-1.26 to -0.09Band excludes zero
57-0.55-1.37 to 0.28Band includes zero
58-0.13-1.45 to 1.19Band includes zero
59-0.55-1.17 to 0.07Band includes zero
601.23-3.10 to 5.56Band includes zero

Coverage and sensitivity

Ten positive-minute metric windows remain unresolved, all in the 2009–2011 classes. They are excluded from complete outcomes, never assigned zero. The strict 2012–2022 sensitivity retains 658 complete selections.

Coverage by draft class
Actual selections and measurement status
DraftSelectionsCompleteUnresolvedNBA appearancesNo NBA appearances
2009605824911
2010605734911
201160555537
201260600555
201360600519
201460600537
2015606004416
201660600546
201760600564
201860600573
201960600582
202060600582
202160600564
202258580526
Check alternative coverage samples
Four-season rank correlations and selected models
SampleCompleteRatedWAR correlationRate correlationWAR / rate model
All completely measured windows; 2009-2022828735-0.52-0.13log / mean
Fully covered draft classes; 2012-2022658594-0.51-0.13log / mean
Exclude windows with >max(2min,1%) exposure discrepancy or unequal games823730-0.52-0.12log / mean
At least 1000 NBA minutes in the four-season window534534-0.31-0.16log / mean

The at-least-1,000-total-minute sensitivity retains 534 players. Its WAR rank correlation is -0.31, versus -0.52 in the main complete-outcome sample; its rate correlation is -0.16. Selecting players by exposure changes the question and does not isolate talent.

Immediate versus delayed NBA debut · measured participants

Within the same completely measured rated population, compare first NBA game in post-draft year one with first NBA game in years two through four. No causes such as injury or draft stash are inferred. The draft-based four-year outcome window is unchanged. Reasons for delayed entry were not measured.

Descriptive subgroups; same four-season window, without causal interpretation.
DebutnPick–WAR rank correlationPick–LEBRON rank correlationWithin-group correlation difference
Year 1652-0.43-0.12-0.31 [-0.35 to -0.27]
Years 2–483-0.44-0.16-0.28 [-0.50 to -0.01]

Each group uses the same whole-class draw schedule; intervals compare its two rank correlations on the same players within each draw. Groups are descriptive selected subsets, not causal or randomized comparisons.

Limitations

Limitations

  • Historical WAR includes production for any NBA team, not necessarily value captured by the team that drafted the player.
  • Four seasons describe early contribution, not full careers; older/younger entrants, delayed debuts, injuries and opportunity matter.
  • LEBRON is an estimated context-sensitive impact measure, not pure talent or causal team scouting quality.
  • Up to 14 draft classes underlie a pick; individual outcomes vary substantially and overlapping mean intervals limit fine rankings.
  • Season counts do not equalize games available across lockout/COVID-shortened seasons.
  • All cohorts use one frozen retrospective provider snapshot. The ratings were not verified as the values available at each historical draft date.
  • Missing positive-minute metrics remain unresolved and are excluded from complete outcomes; coverage is reported explicitly.
  • LEBRON rate analysis conditions on NBA participation and measurement and can have survivorship/selection bias.
  • The selected model's held-out error is an estimate from three test classes; final displayed fit uses those classes after evaluation.
  • Bootstrap curve intervals condition on model selection and do not incorporate provider rating uncertainty.
  • Anomaly scans are exploratory despite simultaneous bands and period/star sensitivity checks.
  • Annual production references use a dated incumbent cap-hit ceiling and observed prior-season WAR. Sourced contract terms are context, not a ranking of unequal-duration production or a valuation of future control.

Definitions

Definitions

LEBRON
BBall Index estimate of on-court impact per 100 possessions, with zero at league average; not pure talent. Window rates are weighted by provider on-court possessions, then players count equally in pick summaries. No minutes means undefined rate.
Accumulated WAR
Provider-supplied LEBRON wins above replacement. Sum over the four regular seasons immediately following selection, preserving negative values. Confirmed absent seasons contribute zero accumulated value.
Four-season window
Elapsed seasons since the draft, not seasons since the NBA debut. Delayed entry uses up the window. Off-calendar 2020 draft maps to the 2020-21 season.
Association
A relationship between draft position and observed outcomes; it does not establish a causal effect of selection position.
Historical player equivalent
The default examples are actual selected-slot draftees nearest each WAR percentile, matching on WAR alone. The optional joint-profile method instead uses: An actual four-season player profile closest to a pick's 25th, 50th or 90th percentile profile in WAR, minutes and rate, standardized by cohort SD. The dimensions' marginal quantiles are a target, not necessarily one observed profile. No play-style or future-player prediction. Optional global joint-profile illustrations; signed WAR/minutes/rate mismatches are explicit. The warning flag means absolute WAR mismatch exceeds the selected slot's observed WAR interquartile range; it is a display heuristic, not a validated quality test. Prefer same-slot examples for direct draft history.
Confidence interval
Uncertainty about a population mean under resampling draft classes, not a range that contains 95% of individual player outcomes.
Held-out draft classes
Entire draft classes excluded during fitting. Model selection uses 2009-2019 only; final test is 2020-2022. Retrospective snapshot values are not a point-in-time scouting backtest.
Trade reference
Divide fitted four-season pick WAR by four, then match one observed 2025-26 WAR season among the verified signed pool under each 2026-27 cap-hit ceiling. Both sides have one-season units. Annualization is a historical average per season, not a rookie-year forecast; no future production is invented.
Same-slot player example
Actual draftee from the selected slot with four-season WAR nearest the slot's 25th/50th/90th percentile. Matching uses only absolute WAR distance (weight 1); minutes and rate have weight 0 and are shown as actual facts. Ties choose the earlier draft class. A nearest example can still differ from its quantile target; the signed difference is explicit. A named nonparticipant has zero accumulated WAR/minutes and an undefined rate.
Rated-player retention
The share of year-one-rated players rated again in year four: paired players divided by year-one-rated players. It is conditional on an initial rating and does not measure survival of all draft selections.
Paired player change
Year-four minus year-one LEBRON for the SAME players rated in both seasons. Returning measured players are a selected group; this is not a causal development estimate for every draftee.
Matched adjacent-slot contrast
Later-numbered slot minus earlier-numbered slot, within the SAME draft classes; primary windows complete for both, and both rates observed for the rate contrast. Intervals are pointwise and exploratory, not simultaneous across all neighboring slots.
Four-season 1,000-minute threshold
At least 1000 total NBA regular-season minutes across all four post-draft seasons; an exposure threshold, not proof of rotation quality
One-season 1,000-minute proxy
At least one of the four post-draft regular seasons with 1000 NBA minutes; a labeled substantial-playing-time proxy, not proof of role or quality
Delayed debut
No NBA games in post-draft year one, but at least one NBA game in years two through four; no-debut players are a separate category
Cross-validation (CV)
Cross-validation (CV): repeatedly hold out one development draft class, fit on the other development classes, and measure error on the held-out class. The reported CV error is the average class error.
Root mean squared error (RMSE)
Root mean squared error (RMSE): square each prediction error, average those squares, then take the square root. It uses the outcome units and gives larger errors more weight. Lower is better.
Standard error and the one-SE rule
The one-standard-error rule keeps the simplest candidate whose average CV error is no more than one standard error above the best average CV error. Here the standard error is the standard deviation of class errors divided by the square root of the number of development classes.
R²
Test R² compares squared prediction errors with predicting the development-sample mean for every test player. Zero means equal error to that baseline; negative means worse. Final-fit R² describes variation explained in the refitted sample and is not held-out performance.
Bootstrap
The bootstrap repeatedly samples whole draft classes with replacement and refits or recalculates a quantity. It preserves players within a class together; the displayed intervals use 2,000 such samples and condition on the selected model.
Natural spline and degrees of freedom
A natural spline joins smooth curve segments while constraining the tails to be linear. Degrees of freedom (df) control flexibility; more df allow more curvature.
Percentiles
A percentile marks a position in the observed player outcomes. The median is the 50th percentile; the 25th–75th percentiles contain the middle half. Percentiles describe outcome spread, not uncertainty about a mean.

Sources and code

Sources and reproducibility

All distribution and uncertainty values
LEBRON rate: observed distribution and 95% mean intervals
PicknP10P25MedianP75P90Mean intervalPooled mean interval
114-0.84-0.040.662.142.920.10 to 1.68-0.95 to -0.84
214-1.78-1.61-0.890.181.27-1.24 to 0.32-0.95 to -0.84
314-1.65-0.590.492.132.85-0.23 to 1.55-0.95 to -0.84
414-2.32-1.84-0.690.580.86-1.29 to 0.06-0.95 to -0.84
514-2.05-1.57-0.670.070.90-1.21 to 0.08-0.95 to -0.84
614-1.68-1.14-0.460.550.76-1.12 to 0.14-0.95 to -0.84
714-2.26-1.95-1.030.130.33-1.46 to -0.22-0.95 to -0.84
814-2.34-1.90-0.77-0.091.00-1.52 to -0.14-0.95 to -0.84
914-1.77-1.65-1.33-0.441.00-1.67 to -0.13-0.95 to -0.84
1014-2.31-1.89-0.550.010.58-1.40 to 0.07-0.95 to -0.84
1114-2.53-2.01-0.650.510.70-1.54 to -0.14-0.95 to -0.84
1214-2.10-1.49-1.12-0.161.10-1.41 to -0.13-0.95 to -0.84
1313-2.17-1.88-1.22-0.630.87-1.66 to -0.42-0.95 to -0.84
1413-2.12-1.60-1.06-0.880.56-1.50 to -0.37-0.95 to -0.84
1514-2.82-1.91-1.180.431.68-1.68 to 0.18-0.95 to -0.84
1614-1.40-1.22-0.75-0.030.44-0.97 to -0.19-0.95 to -0.84
1714-2.83-1.65-1.160.070.28-1.72 to -0.44-0.95 to -0.84
1814-2.22-1.70-1.06-0.440.15-1.52 to -0.51-0.95 to -0.84
1913-1.54-1.33-1.15-0.770.46-1.35 to -0.46-0.95 to -0.84
2012-1.97-1.34-0.93-0.340.39-1.57 to -0.41-0.95 to -0.84
2114-2.53-1.87-0.73-0.300.37-1.59 to -0.48-0.95 to -0.84
2214-2.13-1.79-0.870.461.07-1.44 to -0.05-0.95 to -0.84
2314-2.31-1.91-1.15-0.80-0.38-1.67 to -0.59-0.95 to -0.84
2413-2.91-2.47-1.67-1.290.09-2.27 to -1.05-0.95 to -0.84
2514-2.64-1.83-0.96-0.430.41-1.71 to -0.40-0.95 to -0.84
2613-1.85-1.45-1.34-0.35-0.07-1.37 to -0.49-0.95 to -0.84
2713-1.83-1.43-1.190.651.69-1.15 to 0.51-0.95 to -0.84
2813-2.60-2.11-1.48-1.07-0.45-1.94 to -1.06-0.95 to -0.84
2914-2.31-1.38-0.710.030.40-1.34 to -0.27-0.95 to -0.84
3014-1.91-1.70-0.980.280.88-1.32 to -0.06-0.95 to -0.84
3113-3.02-2.28-1.81-0.86-0.22-2.20 to -0.81-0.95 to -0.84
3213-2.45-1.75-1.59-1.020.30-1.83 to -0.71-0.95 to -0.84
3314-1.77-1.43-0.96-0.350.00-1.26 to -0.47-0.95 to -0.84
3411-2.24-2.00-1.47-0.370.61-1.74 to -0.33-0.95 to -0.84
3512-2.03-1.54-0.72-0.230.68-1.24 to 0.36-0.95 to -0.84
3612-2.20-1.62-0.90-0.090.37-1.62 to -0.19-0.95 to -0.84
3713-2.76-2.23-1.40-0.50-0.30-1.93 to -0.92-0.95 to -0.84
3814-1.81-1.36-0.980.030.64-1.31 to -0.17-0.95 to -0.84
3911-2.32-1.52-0.360.310.36-1.41 to -0.05-0.95 to -0.84
4013-2.52-1.67-1.30-0.60-0.17-1.78 to -0.78-0.95 to -0.84
4114-2.14-1.82-1.15-0.430.37-1.50 to 0.10-0.95 to -0.84
4211-2.75-2.49-1.87-0.170.57-2.08 to -0.41-0.95 to -0.84
4313-2.26-1.93-1.09-0.97-0.04-1.73 to -0.61-0.95 to -0.84
4411-1.64-1.26-0.83-0.54-0.30-1.50 to -0.62-0.95 to -0.84
459-2.12-1.74-1.20-0.590.26-1.65 to -0.42-0.95 to -0.84
4613-2.45-1.80-1.29-0.910.31-1.94 to -0.63-0.95 to -0.84
4710-1.39-1.36-1.17-0.93-0.85-1.30 to -0.97-0.95 to -0.84
4813-2.02-1.84-1.21-0.89-0.59-1.68 to -1.02-0.95 to -0.84
4910-2.53-1.23-0.87-0.49-0.37-1.64 to -0.60-0.95 to -0.84
508-1.12-1.03-0.80-0.61-0.51-1.01 to -0.62-0.95 to -0.84
517-1.57-1.35-0.98-0.43-0.26-1.40 to -0.49-0.95 to -0.84
5212-2.28-1.36-1.06-0.57-0.23-1.55 to -0.71-0.95 to -0.84
5310-2.14-1.36-0.67-0.52-0.36-1.42 to -0.53-0.95 to -0.84
548-1.61-1.55-1.02-0.310.03-1.35 to -0.41-0.95 to -0.84
5513-2.14-1.33-0.94-0.26-0.17-1.42 to -0.62-0.95 to -0.84
5610-1.29-0.99-0.85-0.77-0.65-1.16 to -0.78-0.95 to -0.84
575-1.78-1.61-1.33-1.08-0.70-1.71 to -0.76-0.95 to -0.84
589-2.90-2.34-1.51-0.79-0.22-2.27 to -0.69-0.95 to -0.84
595-1.24-0.97-0.82-0.74-0.62-1.19 to -0.64-0.95 to -0.84
607-1.96-1.74-0.70-0.270.40-1.58 to 0.06-0.95 to -0.84
Accumulated WAR: observed distribution and 95% mean intervals
PicknP10P25MedianP75P90Mean intervalFitted mean interval
1145.0111.0018.4821.0632.1712.16 to 22.9113.42 to 16.02
2142.233.525.0711.8417.354.71 to 10.8811.30 to 13.37
3143.179.5211.5222.1927.629.61 to 19.8010.04 to 11.82
4140.242.039.5111.9614.545.01 to 11.819.14 to 10.74
5140.712.186.7111.6815.254.49 to 10.998.44 to 9.89
6141.553.776.4510.4514.814.61 to 12.687.87 to 9.20
7140.511.965.5710.4816.184.11 to 11.347.39 to 8.61
814-0.041.216.258.5117.223.40 to 11.006.98 to 8.10
9142.152.693.729.6816.403.54 to 11.716.60 to 7.66
10140.181.214.1214.0016.563.79 to 12.926.27 to 7.27
1114-0.060.664.2213.2516.403.15 to 10.505.96 to 6.91
12140.603.015.118.4016.973.77 to 10.415.68 to 6.58
13130.350.842.576.7616.082.34 to 9.325.42 to 6.27
14130.422.004.135.096.202.32 to 7.365.19 to 5.99
1514-0.761.163.447.8920.752.45 to 11.954.97 to 5.73
16140.170.462.336.1211.051.98 to 7.054.76 to 5.49
1714-0.670.702.539.3710.582.24 to 7.754.56 to 5.26
18140.270.982.123.727.391.56 to 6.244.38 to 5.05
19130.480.853.338.5112.692.67 to 7.634.20 to 4.85
20120.321.223.907.067.741.99 to 5.574.03 to 4.66
2114-0.260.183.959.0610.792.48 to 7.643.88 to 4.49
22140.070.262.3910.1214.982.30 to 8.873.72 to 4.31
23140.090.502.995.117.251.71 to 4.663.58 to 4.15
2413-1.04-0.010.243.056.900.12 to 4.223.44 to 4.00
2514-0.650.210.904.1811.780.78 to 5.893.31 to 3.85
26140.290.621.414.967.981.59 to 5.583.18 to 3.71
27130.320.523.189.3715.882.83 to 10.963.05 to 3.58
2814-0.310.030.811.985.690.42 to 3.122.92 to 3.45
2914-0.010.421.345.447.641.47 to 4.932.81 to 3.33
30140.410.962.077.6412.862.46 to 8.262.69 to 3.21
3114-1.030.020.120.565.71-0.22 to 3.082.57 to 3.09
3214-0.210.010.201.515.770.31 to 3.302.46 to 2.98
33140.180.310.671.774.470.71 to 3.592.35 to 2.88
34130.000.080.421.4610.530.66 to 5.852.25 to 2.78
35140.030.120.162.8612.180.70 to 9.262.15 to 2.68
36140.000.030.604.8610.440.77 to 5.582.05 to 2.58
3714-0.370.000.091.655.520.19 to 2.871.95 to 2.49
38140.140.441.502.909.331.05 to 6.771.86 to 2.40
3914-0.040.001.373.848.411.04 to 5.951.77 to 2.32
4013-0.400.020.332.377.830.25 to 4.371.68 to 2.23
41140.080.120.475.148.240.88 to 7.851.59 to 2.15
4214-0.23-0.090.010.964.080.07 to 2.371.50 to 2.07
43140.000.040.242.615.620.52 to 3.071.41 to 2.00
44130.000.071.112.953.420.45 to 2.761.33 to 1.92
45140.000.000.651.412.660.40 to 2.581.25 to 1.85
4614-0.060.001.173.117.530.89 to 4.171.17 to 1.77
47140.000.000.031.202.220.19 to 1.191.09 to 1.70
48140.000.020.110.792.730.13 to 2.021.02 to 1.63
4914-0.020.000.050.213.660.06 to 1.740.95 to 1.56
50140.000.000.111.101.810.20 to 1.290.87 to 1.50
51140.000.000.000.221.270.05 to 1.710.80 to 1.44
52140.000.000.421.402.740.36 to 1.810.73 to 1.37
53140.000.000.070.230.690.07 to 0.590.66 to 1.31
54140.000.000.070.212.400.06 to 1.270.59 to 1.25
55140.010.040.221.073.360.29 to 2.010.52 to 1.19
56140.000.000.070.180.200.05 to 0.180.45 to 1.13
57140.000.000.000.050.210.01 to 0.480.39 to 1.08
5814-0.070.000.010.560.74-0.02 to 1.390.32 to 1.02
59130.000.000.000.030.100.01 to 0.120.26 to 0.97
60130.000.000.070.851.690.14 to 4.900.20 to 0.91

Metric snapshot retrieved 2026-10-23T05:48:39Z; analysis dated 2026-11-04. Bootstrap repetitions: 2000.

The analysis repository is private. Public methodology and data-source references are linked above.