{ "schema_version": 2, "data_version": "2023-2024-broader-profile-v2", "generated_utc": "2026-10-19T20:30:45Z", "seasons": [2023, 2024], "cohort": { "count": 20, "rows": 40, "definition": "Same 20 published GSIS IDs with at least 200 accepted E throws and ten E games in each season; fixed membership across team changes.", "limitation": "CP-related survivor-selected regular-use actors, not position-certified or all NFL quarterbacks.", "identifier": "published nflverse/GSIS player ID", "name": "observed abbreviated source label; no inferred full names" }, "units": { "cpoe_pp": "percentage_points", "completion_pct": "percent", "epa_per_dropback": "expected_points_per_dropback", "epa_lower": "expected_points_per_dropback", "epa_upper": "expected_points_per_dropback", "study_associations": "dimensionless", "eligible_throws": "throws", "eligible_games": "actor_games", "dropbacks": "dropbacks", "dropback_games": "actor_games", "sacks": "sacks", "scramble_runs": "runs", "sack_avoidance_pct": "percent", "combined_opportunities": "combined_opportunities", "combined_games": "actor_games", "nonscramble_runs": "runs", "scramble_games": "actor_games", "nonscramble_games": "actor_games", "scramble_share_pct": "percent", "nonscramble_share_pct": "percent", "scramble_contribution": "expected_points_per_combined_opportunity", "nonscramble_contribution": "expected_points_per_combined_opportunity", "scramble_contribution_lower": "expected_points_per_combined_opportunity", "scramble_contribution_upper": "expected_points_per_combined_opportunity", "nonscramble_contribution_lower": "expected_points_per_combined_opportunity", "nonscramble_contribution_upper": "expected_points_per_combined_opportunity", "scramble_epa_per_run": "expected_points_per_role_run", "nonscramble_epa_per_run": "expected_points_per_role_run" }, "denominators": { "cpoe_pp": "Mean supplied CPOE on the exact frozen in-cohort E keys.", "completion_pct": "100 times mean complete_pass on those identical E keys.", "epa_per_dropback": "Recorded played passes, sacks and scramble-runs; no CP, EPA-availability, E-game, penalty or description filter. Shared possession-team play value.", "actor_games": "Sums of actor-game counts are not distinct NFL-game counts.", "sack_avoidance_pct": "100*(D minus recorded sacks)/D. S scrambles already enter D.", "combined_opportunities": "O is D disjoint union R; R is recorded non-scramble actor runs, including aborted/lateral plays, not designed runs.", "run_contribution": "Sum of role play EPA divided by N_O; usage plus shared observed value. Do not add to EPA per D.", "run_share_pct": "100 times role count/N_O; percent, not fraction.", "role_mean_epa": "Sum of role play EPA/role count; diagnostic only. No role opportunities gives null, not zero ability.", "recorded_composition": "Disjoint other D passes, sacks, scramble-runs and R over O; do not stack overlapping diagnostic flags." }, "uncertainty": { "cpoe_pp": "Individual uncertainty not estimated.", "completion_pct": "Individual uncertainty not estimated.", "epa": "Existing approximate 95% marginal conditional actor-game-sampling sensitivities, centered on the deletion mean; not paired-player, difference or rank intervals.", "study_associations": "Existing approximate 95% conditional whole-NFL-game working-model sensitivities; annual season-specific deviations centered on the full estimate.", "limits": "No demonstrated NFL coverage, causal isolation, forecast, useful player separation or CPOE superiority; persistent context, serial dependence, survivor selection and unknown CP model vintage remain.", "unavailable": "Null interval limits mean unavailable, not zero; preserve interval status.", "sack_avoidance_pct": "Individual uncertainty not estimated.", "run_contribution": "Copied approximate 95% marginal conditional actor O-game ratio sensitivities, centered on the deletion mean; not player-difference, rank or season-change intervals.", "run_shares_and_role_means": "No intervals estimated. Zero observed count/share/contribution is distinct from null unavailable per-run mean.", "marginal_collapsed": "No observed deletion variation, not certainty.", "sack_and_rush_studies": "Whole-NFL-game Fisher sensitivities; each season uses its own replicate mean. Annual strata contain 223 and 208 contributing games, not independent observations.", "overlap": "S already enters D EPA and avoidance; the six views share evidence. No cross-study superiority test or isolated mobility/overall score." }, "sources": [ { "id": "pbp_2023", "url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2023.parquet", "sha256": "bd3484731408def6b0ec93225bba2bd7b2c65769ca707a2b9444d891abdc6776", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "notices_url": null }, { "id": "pbp_2024", "url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2024.parquet", "sha256": "3fd2896bc0b911b615142d2f1fabae54a4bbba5ab7b73b28187b118ef8af6a3b", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "notices_url": null }, { "id": "schedule_reference", "url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nflverse/nfldata/1bc55c1a32253a78875ca786f8492479a2006567/data/games.rds", "sha256": "659e4ae782353bb80d196c6789e11eae545a93be9fdb668dd3e3ae4fdac860eb", "license": null, "license_url": null, "notices_url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nfldata" } ], "attribution": { "data": "PBP data: nflverse, CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and transformed for this analysis.", "source_notices": "Retain applicable upstream notices and disclaimers; no endorsement is implied. Schedule reference has separate upstream notices.", "data_license_url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/blob/master/LICENSE.md", "analysis_repository": "https://github.com/nanu731/nfl-qb-eval", "code_license": "MIT", "transformation_notice": "Aggregated exact frozen eligible throws to player-season CPOE and completion means; copied existing raw-EPA summaries and conditional intervals. No new uncertainty estimation. Added existing recorded sack-avoidance/run-contribution aggregates and conditional sensitivities; derived role shares/composition from their accepted counts. No new estimation." }, "analysis_versions": { "annual": { "version": "annual-1.0", "specification_sha256": "76f2e6d49b23b1e1d508fb27e3957db0990b39081eb1572a99572902437d690b", "script_sha256": "a7c68d455d38586e19b9885c0a4bf7d02aecf8064f9e62238fc035ecd342c723" }, "baseline": { "version": "observed-value-baseline-1.0", "specification_sha256": "e9c7144e955eab6c6fbcbc7ac1dd545e7a3bb93f32194ffe539007068a88807f", "script_sha256": "9a46c916acc34f05e7264a0d0085cbfa557147c95bc3be96bb2dc1aabd03de14" }, "prior_export": { "version": "1.1", "specification_sha256": "4522244b7399f0d4d93ab7622c92159525eeb27cd9a66046ee8f9658f6044da1", "script_sha256": "1959b8d2fa5eece4b32986c9f1c970346c3c03862bb39489df5e78f76e17cd98" }, "sack": { "version": "recorded-sack-avoidance-1.0", "specification_sha256": "e60420a5020804a5cafcd3eaf559b20d17ab716c52e9130e32f48c6ae1f070d7", "script_sha256": "1350057387ec3e711bf02085360f58aa3f5a4f5007747f62ffbcb2fe9609ceff", "commit": "0d3af5433c8aa3adf1ae79b4b7969dbacbacedb7" }, "rush": { "version": "recorded-run-contribution-1.0", "specification_sha256": "347a063258182a6558a0b372fc465b2637f09038b02175e89b61c3e23b0cd932", "script_sha256": "4f29f1e61e781f3f382ed6ef06d420f12ca45cf9dd93db7d8d89e087b3c91e07", "commit": "af4e57776d1a7f848942273bcc5cf104ff296b99" }, "export": { "version": "2.1", "specification_sha256": "ce69303df3bb8708a3d85992bdf6c03bbf0215c7f71f69cf07911d7529328149", "script_sha256": "1018bb472b6f818fcdb8f1f6023e8587f5dfdc0f9bf15a753da4d2108b594403" } }, "aggregate_input_hashes": { "v1_payload": "66264611b91e2f0666facb71dcb42cd05160d1f9f2f095702ce27c96486365d0", "annual_associations": "d78c2e97829ae77c3ffdbdb7002011bd4bc2809250da4fcc5269af32be99302f", "annual_intervals": "1fab47c8ba471d9568fdd19383a8e8756e6c40fac019a248dbe696feb1c88ff7", "cohort": "2d4322731540a760c83f4bbea231f14581ca3b34bdc8c2376271d11ffe5546ba", "E_keys": "67f05a4386241620f24b4618ebd504931fa7659c5c8c57c4c9f5b2a3f9056808", "baseline_rows": "e01104a873504a636ecb62a68f47df2e958dba158892b6ae6b79038dfc1404dc", "sack_rates": "c5fe5f8bdd73f1d38a5ed5b65ea7dfb4c73027ccb593169b96fd357024f7bde0", "sack_counts": "d07d030d99969720598754e9e23712904f70ead59342ea4f8dc67e9cff924647", "sack_results": "92afb33f9c1b0f3890c23eb2562062c2eb447f8ba07722b763777fd78582b28d", "rush_points": "0b5b8f6c9d13e65cdafaf057fceba6f53d7f46b3a19707a1e11d84ef2b22508e", "rush_intervals": "30eed49d888ba7c2ab079a00bad2c53fe3a4646dd32a3deabe9759541f9bac26", "rush_results": "e07aa3a0ef149fd3c2705e6b63aca4964ae98835be03a1a9c565f3ebb8b3c893", "rush_frozen_hashes": "9cee899a995364d6c13ccb0fce426fdfd2d8fd51a1299939e0c93f3aac868934", "rush_manifest": "44eceec8d0c2b009975487d6fa80761f0fd4cb6b3cb2b4f3c52bb7ec40b15050", "rush_O_keys": "8fde2aa8c2253f5a07292549fa297941c329648bdfb84a4a9dab151e6b48739b", "rush_O_maps": "563457a68f8d251561236601c6aae8c9a0018d4c3765556accd037f8529b935f" }, "rows": [ { "player_key": "00-0026498", "observed_name": "M.Stafford", "season": 2023, "eligible_throws": 495, "eligible_games": 15, "cpoe_pp": -2.5567877112012876, "completion_pct": 65.85858585858584, "dropbacks": 562, "dropback_games": 15, "epa_per_dropback": 0.094461963920264444, "epa_lower": -0.02641948731662068, "epa_upper": 0.21534341515714955, "epa_interval_status": "approximate_conditional_game_sampling_sensitivity", "sacks": 30, "scramble_runs": 14, "sack_avoidance_pct": 94.661921708185034, "combined_opportunities": 564, "combined_games": 15, "nonscramble_runs": 2, "scramble_games": 10, "nonscramble_games": 1, "scramble_share_pct": 2.4822695035460991, "nonscramble_share_pct": 0.35460992907801403, "scramble_contribution": 0.01198701070670528, "nonscramble_contribution": 2.5087820654173532e-05, "scramble_contribution_lower": -0.0039852737007172803, "scramble_contribution_upper": 0.027959295114127859, "nonscramble_contribution_lower": -2.4165158838474119e-05, "nonscramble_contribution_upper": 7.4340800146821179e-05, "scramble_interval_status": "approximate_conditional_game_sampling_sensitivity", "nonscramble_interval_status": "approximate_conditional_game_sampling_sensitivity", "scramble_epa_per_run": 0.48290528847012737, "nonscramble_epa_per_run": 0.0070747654244769304, "scramble_role_mean_status": "observed_role_mean", "nonscramble_role_mean_status": "observed_role_mean" }, { "player_key": "00-0026498", "observed_name": "M.Stafford", "season": 2024, "eligible_throws": 500, "eligible_games": 16, "cpoe_pp": -0.6663935422897338, "completion_pct": 68, "dropbacks": 547, "dropback_games": 16, "epa_per_dropback": 0.070853174891024592, "epa_lower": -0.071479144551935728, "epa_upper": 0.21318549433398493, "epa_interval_status": "approximate_conditional_game_sampling_sensitivity", "sacks": 28, "scramble_runs": 3, "sack_avoidance_pct": 94.881170018281537, "combined_opportunities": 559, "combined_games": 16, "nonscramble_runs": 12, "scramble_games": 3, "nonscramble_games": 6, "scramble_share_pct": 0.53667262969588503, 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0.43239189892482177, "scramble_role_mean_status": "observed_role_mean", "nonscramble_role_mean_status": "observed_role_mean" }, { "player_key": "00-0029263", "observed_name": "R.Wilson", "season": 2024, "eligible_throws": 306, "eligible_games": 11, "cpoe_pp": 4.4717811973266244, "completion_pct": 69.934640522875796, "dropbacks": 387, "dropback_games": 11, "epa_per_dropback": 0.0080983021480340606, "epa_lower": -0.15263687906642912, "epa_upper": 0.16883348336249723, "epa_interval_status": "approximate_conditional_game_sampling_sensitivity", "sacks": 33, "scramble_runs": 20, "sack_avoidance_pct": 91.472868217054284, "combined_opportunities": 400, "combined_games": 11, "nonscramble_runs": 13, "scramble_games": 11, "nonscramble_games": 8, "scramble_share_pct": 5, "nonscramble_share_pct": 3.25, "scramble_contribution": 0.01776874296629103, "nonscramble_contribution": -0.01688804072982748, "scramble_contribution_lower": -0.02742400920700434, "scramble_contribution_upper": 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